Projects per year
Organisation profile
Organisation profile
Time series, i.e. data measured over time, arise in many natural and industrial applications.
Examples of such series include historical environmental measurements, financial indicators, and physiological or biological processes. These series are often high-dimensional in nature and exhibit complex temporal characteristics. Being able to analyse the changing structure of such data is key to understanding the dynamics of many important physical processes.
Wavelets and Locally Stationary Time Series
Many of the time series which we generate are characterised by a time-evolving statistical structure, so called locally stationary time series. Failing to account for such realities can result in serious consequences. Our work seeks to develop more realistic models and analysis methods which explicitly account for such time-varying structure, for tasks such as statistical testing, forecasting, and classification.
Changepoint methods
With the increased availability of high frequency data sources, there is a need for algorithms for detecting times when changes in time series occur, particularly in cases where such changes may not be immediately obvious. A particular current focus is hence on the development of accurate and computationally efficient changepoint search methods.
Examples of application areas in which changepoint detection is important include ensuring safety in industrial process monitoring and intrusion detection.
Robust estimation and bootstrapping in financial time series
Our research focuses on the analysis and computation of parameter estimators associated with the volatility models of financial time series such as GARCH model. In particular, we propose estimators that are robust and perform well even under various deviations from the underlying model assumptions. We consider applications of robust estimators to the analysis of financial risk measures. We study both theoretical and empirical properties of these estimators and the bootstrap approximations of their distributions.
Collaborations and top research areas from the last five years
Profiles
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Idris Eckley, FLSW
- School Of Mathematical Sciences - Distinguished Professor of Statistics
- Changepoints and Time Series - Academic
- DSAIL - Foundations
- Data Science and AI @Lancaster - Academic
- STOR-i Centre for Doctoral Training - Academic
- Energy Lancaster - Academic
Person: Academic and Related
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Forecasting river levels utilising non stationarity: Forecasting river levels utilising non stationarity
Killick, R. (Principal Investigator) & Ilic, S. (Co-Investigator)
1/01/16 → …
Project: Research
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Google Summer of Code 2021
Killick, R. (Principal Investigator) & Urgell, D. (Researcher)
Project: Research
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STORi: DSI: Evolution of statistical earthquake models to account for measurement errors and dependence (Wanchen Yue)
Martinez Hernandez, I. (Co-Investigator) & Tawn, J. (Principal Investigator)
1/10/23 → 30/09/26
Project: Research
Research output
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Online multivariate changepoint detection: leveraging links with computational geometry
Pishchagina, L., Romano, G., Fearnhead, P., Runge, V. & Rigaill, G., 28/02/2026, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology). 88, 1, p. 171-194 24 p., qkaf046.Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Open AccessFile36 Downloads (Pure) -
ℓ1-regularized generalized least squares
S. Nobari, K. & Gibberd, A., 31/12/2026, In: Electronic Journal of Statistics. 20, 1Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Open Access -
Disaggregating Time-Series with Many Indicators: An Overview of the DisaggregateTS Package
Mosley, L., Salehzadeh Nobari, K., Brandi , G. & Gibberd, A., 27/06/2025, In: The R Journal. 16, 4, p. 62-73 12 p.Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Open Access
Activities
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RSS International Conference 2023
Austin, E. (Speaker)
5/09/2023Activity: Participating in or organising an event types › Participation in conference - Academic
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Invited Talk: CMStatistics2021 - Detecting Emergent Anomalous Functional Data
Austin, E. (Speaker)
19/12/2021Activity: Talk or presentation types › Invited talk
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Automatic Detection of Epilepsy Seizures in NHS Electroencephalography Records
Elliott, D. (Speaker)
27/11/2019Activity: Talk or presentation types › Invited talk
Prizes
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Best Academic Performance Award in MSc Quantitative Finance
Liu, H. (Recipient), 2016
Prize: Prize (including medals and awards)
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Best Dissertation Award in MSc Quantitative Finance
Liu, H. (Recipient), 2016
Prize: Prize (including medals and awards)
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ESRC NWSSDTP +3 award Doctoral Studentship
Liu, H. (Recipient), 2017
Prize: Prize (including medals and awards)
Press/Media
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Modelling ocean flows advances climate change understanding
Sykulski, A.
7/08/17
1 item of Media coverage
Press/Media: Research
Datasets
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JakeGrainger/NorthSeaBuoyDisplacementAnalysis: v1.0.0
Grainger, J. P. (Creator), Zenodo, 28/07/2022
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6922892, https://zenodo.org/record/6922892
Dataset
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JakeGrainger/OceanWaveSpectralFitting.jl: v0.3.0
Grainger, J. P. (Creator), Zenodo, 2/09/2022
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7042974, https://zenodo.org/record/7042974
Dataset